Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 32.543048 35.065054 37.799494 41.004747 44.685379 48.812433 53.837318
2025-05-11 28.683769 32.027939 35.883122 40.726241 46.753401 54.159688 64.208811
2025-05-18 26.203246 29.915913 34.366443 40.221345 47.929495 58.067457 73.064913
2025-05-25 24.256578 28.141084 32.932683 39.459449 48.438880 60.923923 80.832225
2025-06-01 22.689708 26.655986 31.660521 38.672356 48.680179 63.281405 88.213149
2025-06-08 21.286685 25.252159 30.345014 37.642661 48.375148 64.680941 94.253755
2025-06-15 20.810274 24.997179 30.499091 38.620137 51.057802 71.057439 110.708680
2025-06-22 20.007824 24.246649 29.908709 38.448410 51.928936 74.577194 122.875879
2025-06-29 19.140297 23.352628 29.050629 37.790476 51.922985 76.533813 132.406520
2025-07-06 18.235611 22.359380 27.989608 36.734499 51.134763 76.916863 138.469381
2025-07-13 18.070347 22.371974 28.353026 37.877567 54.151218 85.025151 167.408925
2025-07-20 17.787586 22.200136 28.430075 38.564774 56.449361 92.215275 198.681105
2025-07-27 17.426017 21.919312 28.358677 39.057598 58.565705 99.800632 238.863570
2025-08-03 16.894145 21.370388 27.855248 38.798473 59.248093 104.373445 273.420850
2025-08-10 16.354671 20.784658 27.260606 38.332315 59.460049 107.874998 308.131792
2025-08-17 15.798891 20.151510 26.559426 37.628299 59.107677 109.874267 338.864742
2025-08-24 15.275416 19.546015 25.872301 36.900281 58.623694 111.437594 370.548280
2025-08-31 14.733718 18.894790 25.085593 35.946751 57.570178 111.221786 391.787014
2025-09-07 14.634810 18.899743 25.332668 36.851954 60.590470 123.639114 541.602477
2025-09-14 14.315365 18.559080 25.009098 36.693007 61.252558 129.184358 659.306797
2025-09-21 13.921487 18.092190 24.461620 36.083710 60.823625 131.089794 747.813229
2025-09-28 13.472686 17.528861 23.737338 35.104704 59.448032 129.475381 782.332787
2025-10-05 13.451433 17.618963 24.083388 36.164392 62.993427 146.577433 1369.072579